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SLU/YouGov Poll Shows Jay Ashcroft Favored to Win Republican Nomination for Governor

by Kenneth Warren, Ph.D.

SLU’s Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis on the latest SLU/YouGov poll results and how Missourians are feeling toward the race for Missouri governor.

Of voters who said they would only vote for the Republican candidate in the general election in our SLU/YouGov poll, Jay Ashcroft led among these voters by almost a three-to-one margin, with 28% saying they would vote for Ashcroft in the Republican primary. Meanwhile, 10% favored Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, 8% supported state Sen. Bill Eigel, and 3% favored Chris Wright. This suggests good fortunes for Ashcroft in the upcoming August Republican primary. Ashcroft is presently Missouri’s secretary of state, a relatively high-visibility office that often has been used as a launch pad for ambitious politicians wanting to run for higher office, including Warren Hearnes and Matt Blunt, who both became governor, and Roy Blunt, who became a U.S. senator.

Bar graph showing poll results for Republican candidates for governor. Jay Ashcroft, 28%; Bill Eigel, 8%; Mike Kehoe, 10%; Chris Wright, 3%; Not Sure, 49%; Other, 1%.

Likely voters' responses to "Which of the following Republican candidates for Governor would you be most likely to support?": 28% Jay Ashcroft, 8% Bill Eigel, 10% Mike Kehoe, 3% Chris Wright, 49% Not sure, and 1% Other.

Jay Ashcroft benefits greatly from the Ashcroft name, well known to Missouri voters. His father, John Ashcroft, was a very popular and accomplished politician in Missouri politics. John Ashcroft served as Missouri’s state auditor, attorney general, governor and U.S. senator. He also served as U.S. attorney general under President George W. Bush.

Despite Jay Ashcroft’s pedigree, Kehoe has outraised Ashcroft by a large margin. End-of-year reports showed Kehoe had raised $260,000 for his personal campaign committee, but $4.3 million in his American Dream Political Action Committee. Ashcroft had raised about half that for a total of $2.2 million. Eigel had reported raising $1.6 million.

Even though Ashcroft leads Kehoe, 28% to 10%, among those who said they would vote for the Republican candidate in the general election (that is, those most likely to vote in the August Republican Primary), almost half, 49%, are “not sure” who they will support. Although the race appears to be between Ashcroft and Kehoe, Eigel polled only 2% less than Kehoe, and Eigel has enough money to compete. This race also seems to be a contest between Ashcroft’s superior name recognition versus Kehoe’s superior war chest. The question is, can Kehoe spend enough money in this primary campaign to overcome Ashcroft’s lead that is largely due to the legendary Ashcroft name in Missouri politics?

Missouri’s upcoming Republican primary race for governor is also complicated by the fact that Missouri has an open primary system that allows all voters to vote in any primary. Because Democrats can vote in the Republican primary, political observers wonder what impact this could have on the results of that race. This is especially significant because the Democratic primary for governor has little meaning since Missouri has become such a red state, giving the Democratic nominee only a feeble chance of winning in November.

In fact, the Democratic primary ballot is filled with relatively unknown candidates, causing 66% of respondents in our poll, who noted they would vote Democrat in the general election (that is, voters most likely to vote in the Democratic Primary), to say they are “not sure” who they will vote for. State Rep. Crystal Quade, Democratic minority leader in the Missouri House, leads with 18%, followed by Sheryl Gladney with 6%. Mike Hamra and state Rep. Sarah Unsicker each polled 3%.

Bar graph showing poll results of Democratic Candidates for governor: Sheryl Gladney, 4%; Mike Hamra, 5%; Crystal Quade, 21%; Sarah Unsicker, 4%; Not sure, 66%; Other, 0%

Likely voters' responses to "Which of the following Democratic candidates for Governor would you be most likely to support?": 4% Sheryl Gladney, 5% Mike Hamra, 21% Crystal Quade, 4% Sarah Unsicker, 66% Not sure, and 0% Other.

Realizing the slim chances for the Democratic Party nominee to win the governor’s race, enough Democratic voters, as well as Independent voters, could vote in the Republican primary, possibly altering the results. However, when we asked all respondents in our SLU/YouGov poll to tell us which candidate they would support for governor, Ashcroft was still favored, but by a lesser margin, 18% to 8% over Kehoe, with Eigel receiving 5% and 52% saying “not sure.”

The Aug. 6 Republican primary is almost six months away, and anything can happen. Yet, our SLU/YouGov poll data suggest that currently Jay Ashcroft is not only the favorite to win the Republican primary, but given the dominance of the Republican Party in Missouri, he is the odds-on favorite to become Missouri’s next governor.

This analysis is based on data from the February 2024 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.